Stock Market Reaction Shows that Decisions of Fear
Are Wrong for Investments
Newly
developed scientifically predictable investment model shows that the recent
market volatility is a result of instinctive response to fear rather than
analytical response to economic indicators. The instinctive-response mode
makes investors “cut and run.” Conversely, the analytical-response mode,
a.k.a. system 2, originates in the cortex and makes analytical decisions based
on the economy.
The
scientifically predictable model shows that the U.S. economy is strong and
vibrant. Retail sales climbed 0.9% in April after an upwardly revised gain of
1.4% in March. This is a key economic indicator because consumer consumption
makes up about 70% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Additionally, the economy
added 428,000 jobs in April, for an average monthly gain of 523,000 over the
past three months. The unemployment rate, at 3.6%, is near pre-pandemic level.
The
instinctive-financial behavior today is the same as the behavior of our
ancestors who faced uncertainty of survival from the elements and predatory
animals. Although our fears today are more financially oriented, our
instinctive response still originates from this part of the brain but is not
suitable for investment decisions. The scientific study on the impact of money
anxiety on financial decisions has been peer reviewed and published in the
Journal of Applied Business and Economics.
When
investors are exposed to negative news, economic, political or social, their
level of money anxiety increases, which automatically generates instinctive
response as part of their survival mechanism. Unfortunately, the instinctive
response means “cut and run,” so they sell their stock and get out of the
market. The same response our ancestors had when they saw lighting in the sky –
they grabbed their food and wood and run into the cave.
The
Scientifically Predictable Investing Model was designed to neutralize
instinctive decisions by promoting the science of financial decisions. The
model provides investors with a scientific projection of the featured equities,
suggesting that investors follow the scientific projection rather than their
instinctive response to sell when panicking. The Scientifically Predictable
Investment Model provides peace of mind during volatile markets such as the one
experienced in the last two weeks.
About
Analyticom LLC
Analyticom LLC is a behavioral economics and finance firm focusing on
developing predictive models for financial behavior. The company is a pioneer
in developing a scientifically predictable model for the equity market based on
the level of money anxiety. The Scientifically Predictable model projects the
rate and return of ETF based on a predictor that is featured in the study
“Dynamics of Yield Gravity and the Money Anxiety Index” and has been peer
reviewed and published in the Journal of Applied Business and Economics.
Contact:
Dr. Dan Geller
Behavioral Economist
for Financial Services
Analyticom LLC
drgeller@analyticom.com
www.analyticom.com
415-891-3093

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