Becoming an Overnight Success

 

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My friend David Altshuler is one of the most recognized educational consultants in the country. If your college-age kid can’t decide whether to take a full-ride scholarship to MIT or Stanford or whether they should spend the afternoon locked in their room cutting themselves or trying meth, David is the guy you call.

David is on the speed dial of most therapists who deal with adolescent issues. When they need an expert to show parents how to help their kids thrive, they call David.

And when newly minted MSWs and PhDs are ready to open their own therapeutic practices, they call David.

“I want to do what you do,” they say. “I want to help families and kids. You make it look so easy. How’d you do it?”

The answer they all want is that all they need to do is do their best. Provide excellent service and help families, and their businesses will take off. They want the old movie line, “If you build it, they will come,” to be their storyline.

But the truth is it takes an awful lot of hard work to get to where David is. In addition to his advanced degrees, years of experience, and constant study, David has written 3,248 blog posts and seven books on helping kids thrive. He has also visited almost every accredited college and university in the United States and evaluated hundreds of therapeutic programs.

In other words, David became an overnight success after 40 years.

How can you be an Overnight Success?

My friend Bill Stainton is a renowned professional speaker and humorist. If you’re ever lucky enough to see Bill on stage, and you can stop laughing long enough to think about what he’s doing, you’ll be amazed at how he makes it all look so effortless. Bill’s so good on stage that many people who line up to chat with him after a talk ask the same question: “You’re so funny. You know, I’m funny, too. How can I be a professional speaker like you?”

Of course, Bill’s audiences don’t see the years of hard work, rehearsal, and study that got Bill to where he is today. They probably don’t realize Bill was in the cast of Seattle’s Almost Live!, the pioneering comedy show that earned him 29 Emmy awards and had a time slot that pushed SNL half an hour later. Or that Bill worked with Jerry Seinfeld, Ellen DeGeneres, and Bill Nye the Science Guy. Or that Bill has written for HBO, Comedy Central, and The Tonight Show. Or that Bill has been a hard-working member of The National Speakers Association and is an honored member of their Speaker Hall of Fame.   All they see is the effortless stagecraft that Bill earned through his decades of hands-on experience. 

In other words, Bill became an overnight success after 40 years.

Of course, Bill and David were highly successful long before they’d been in their respective careers for 40 years. As talented as they are, they were overnight successes after 15 or 20 years. However, the point remains: becoming world-class successes like Bill and David ain’t easy. It takes years and years of hard work.

How can you be an Overnight Success?

A man strolled down Madison Avenue in New York City when a harried-looking tourist approached him.
“Do you know how to get to Carnegie Hall?” the tourist asked.

“Of course,” the New Yorker answered. “Practice, man, practice.”

Current State of US Manufacturing

What is the current state of US manufacturing right now and for the rest of 2024?

Overall, US manufacturing is on the back side of the business cycle. Looking at the different sectors, the majority are either in Phase C, Slowing Growth, or Phase D, Recession.

Our expectation for the rest of this year is sluggishness. The downturn will be relatively mild due to onshoring and government subsidies into certain parts of manufacturing. Think of the CHIPS and Science Act and the high-tech sector for manufacturing production. Chips, communications equipment, computers – those are getting a boost. That will help mitigate the overall US manufacturing decline. I would characterize it more as generally flat with a downward bias.

When you prepare for downturns, if you have those strategic Management Objectives and know when to implement them, it is a lot easier to lead with confidence through such tougher periods.

Is it time to review your utilization of customer financing programs as an important component of your total (and comprehensive) sales strategy? Call me at (954) 224-3390 to discuss how simple and easy it is to implement a successful customer financing strategy! 

Increased Bankruptcy Filings

 

Epiq: Commercial Chapter 11 Filings Increased 70% in First Half of 2024, Total Filings Increased 7%

JUL 3, 2024 

The 987 total commercial chapter 11 bankruptcies filed during the first six months of 2024 represented a 70% increase over the 582 filed during the same period in 2023, according to Epiq AACER, a provider of U.S. bankruptcy filing data.

All chapters increased in June 2024 compared to June 2023. Overall commercial filings registered 2,743 for the first half of 2024, representing a 27% increase from the commercial filing total of 2,154 for the first half of 2023. Small business filings, captured as subchapter V elections within chapter 11, totaled 306 in the first six months of 2024, a 76% increase from the 174 elections during the same period in 2023.

“Commercial filing trends continue to show strong double-digit percentage increases in year-over-year filings, while individual filings increased at a much lower rate compared to commercial filings in the first half of 2024,” Michael Hunter, vice president of Epiq AACER. “I expect a strong demand in individual filings ahead of us, especially considering the large increase in commercial filings, consumer debt levels, high interest rates and overall increased costs with relatively flat household income. The time frame from the onset of individual financial stress to a bankruptcy filing is generally six to 18 months.”

Total bankruptcy filings were 40,262 during the first six months of 2024, a 7% increase from the 37,790 total filings during the same period a year ago. Total individual filings registered a 5% increase, as the 37,519 filings during the first half of 2024 were up from the 35,636 filings during the first six months of 2023. The 15,228 individual chapter 13 filings in the first half of 2024 represent a 2% increase over the 14,991 filings during the same period in 2023.

“The continued increase in bankruptcy filings reflects the growing economic strain on businesses and households,” Amy Quackenboss, executive director of the American Bankruptcy Institute, said. “We hope that efforts continue on Capitol Hill to reinstate higher debt-eligibility limits for small businesses and chapter 13 filers to create greater access and a more efficient process for small businesses and families to achieve a financial fresh start.”

Due to a statutory sunset that was unable to be extended by Congress before June 21, the enhanced subchapter V debt limit established in March 2020 dropped from $7.5 million to $3,024,725, and the chapter 13 threshold of $2.75 million for both secured and unsecured debt reverted back to a two-part test limiting eligibility to a maximum of $465,275 for unsecured debt and $1,395,875 for secured debt.

Sen. Richard Durbin (D-Ill.), who, along with a group of bipartisan senators, had introduced S. 4150 on April 17 to extend the enhanced limits for subchapter V elections and chapter 13 filers for an additional two years, has vowed to continue to try to restore greater access for small businesses and consumers. ABI’s Subchapter V Task Force in its final report and recommendations to Congress supports an eligibility limit of $7.5 million in aggregate noncontingent, liquidated debt for small businesses looking to reorganize under subchapter V.

Halfway Point 2024

 

Are your bookings on track with your projections?

Is your revenue on track to meet your year-end goal?

Throughout this cycle, there is noteworthy variability across markets. A mixed bag of market expectations for the second half of the year could create drag on your business or provide you some nice lift as you look to meet your goals by the end of the year. For instance, US Industrial Production is plateauing and will generally vacillate around this level through the remainder of 2024. By contrast, the services side of the economy is growing and will continue to do so for the remainder of the year.

Even within these larger segments, there is variability that could impact your outcomes.

• US Defense Capital Goods New Orders are in recession (5.0% below the year ago level), but the trend is expected to reverse and defense spending will rise by the end of the year.
• US Heavy-Duty Truck Production is 3.4% above the prior year, but Production will end 2024 3.9% below 2023.
• US Single-Unit Housing Starts are up 13.5% and the rate of growth will slow to 6.3% by the end of the year.

Your future is not mandated by the various market trends, but it is certainly influenced by them. Having the appropriate benchmarks and outlooks for your business can help you get a better read on the future and give you the power to navigate through uncertain times.

Many markets will finish 2024 weaker than 2023. Is your business prepared? If not, you may find yourself cutting expenses to preserve EBITDA. However, cut carefully. Growth is projected to return for many markets in 2025, and you do not want to be left behind should you not have the resources in place to capture new opportunities.

This does not mean that 2025 is all smooth sailing. While we anticipate growth returning to many industries that year, not all industries will recoup the losses. The following are examples of industries that will grow in 2025 but will not surpass their current level of activity:

• US Construction Machinery New Orders
• US Computers & Electronics New Orders
• North America Light Vehicle Production

Ensure you have the right benchmarks for your business so that the actions you take now are not just reactionary to the current market environment but are helping you better align yourself for future growth.

For further insights and additional information on the above markets, as well as many others, each month, start your ITR Economics Trends Report™ subscription today.