The Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI)

The Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) is designed to collect leadership data, the index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and expectations for the future as reported by the key executives from the $900 billion equipment finance sector. Confidence in the U.S. economy and the capital markets is a critical driver to the equipment finance industry. Throughout the history, when confidence increases, consumers and businesses are more apt to acquire more consumer goods, equipment, and durables and invest at prevailing prices. When confidence decreases, spending and risk-taking tend to fall. Investors are said to be confident when the news about the future is good and stock prices are rising. Robust consumer demand, a strong labor market, and increased equipment and software investment—the lifeblood of the equipment finance industry--look promising. We can look forward to ‘getting back to business’ in 2022, provided supply chain issues ease significantly and the pandemic is effectively curbed

Low financial stress, an expanding housing sector, and increased federal spending on infrastructure are expected to propel equipment and software investment growth of 4.6 percent for 2022. Annual U.S. GDP growth for 2022 is forecast at 3.5 percent, according to the “2022 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook” released by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation. The Foundation’s report, which is focused on the nearly $1 trillion equipment leasing and finance industry, highlights key trends in equipment investment and places them in the context of the broader U.S. economic climate.

Highlights from the 2022 Outlook include:

•   While equipment and software investment is forecast to grow 4.6 percent (annualized) in 2022, supply chain constraints, high inflation, and tighter monetary policy are key headwinds to growth.

•   The U.S. economy slowed in fall 2021 as the pandemic worsened and supply chain constraints snarled global trade and drove inflation to multi-decade highs. However, growth in Q4 has likely rebounded, and the economy appears poised for an above-average year in 2022.

•   The U.S. manufacturing sector should continue to expand at a healthy rate in 2022, although supply chain issues, hiring difficulties, and high inflation could dampen industrial sector output, particularly during the first half of the year.

•   On Main Street, the outlook has grown increasingly cloudy. Small firms are more susceptible to surging input costs and labor scarcity than large firms, which may weigh on small businesses as the new year gets underway. On the positive side, consumer demand remains robust, and the winter months should be smoother this year than last.

•   The Federal Reserve officials recently shifted their positions in response to new data and now acknowledge that inflationary pressures are likely here to stay. The Fed is now expected to end quantitative easing earlier than planned and raise interest rates at least once by mid-2022. Multiple rate hikes are possible in 2022, particularly if job growth stays on track.

The Foundation-Keybridge U.S. Equipment & Software Investment Momentum Monitor,

Eleven verticals are peaking/slowing, and one is accelerating. Over the next three to six months, year over year:

•   Agriculture machinery investment growth will continue to decelerate.

•   Construction machinery investment growth will decelerate, though likely remain in positive territory.

•   Materials handling equipment investment growth should remain positive.

•   All other industrial equipment investment growth should slow.

•   Medical equipment investment growth should remain in positive territory, but will likely decelerate.

•   Mining and oilfield machinery investment growth should stay strong.

•   Aircraft investment growth will continue to decelerate, though remain positive.

•   Ships and boats investment growth is expected to remain in healthy territory.

•   Railroad equipment investment growth is expected to remain strong.

•   Trucks investment growth should remain healthy.

•   Computers investment growth should remain positive, but is unlikely to accelerate.

•   Software investment growth may have peaked, though should remain robust.

The full report of the Momentum Monitor is now available at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/momentum-monitor/.